For the second, or perhaps third, time since Lebanon’s successful June 2009 parliamentary elections, the regional situation seems to favor a settlement in the divided country – or so we are told.
Regardless of whether Syrian President Bashar al-Asad’s trip to Saudi Arabia leads to a thaw between Damascus and Riyadh, the actions of regional leaders – and the reactions of their local allies – have again exposed the ugly truth behind politics in Lebanon. The puppet masters are puppets themselves.
In a country where millions heed the beck and call of a few tribal chiefs, warlords, playboys, and politicians masquerading as clerics, it should come as no surprise that these elites look to their patrons for guidance. Sitting across the kitchen table, a wise man once told his son that “these ‘people’ [to use an acceptable word] are not from Mars: they are from Lebanon; they are Lebanon.”
In the current mess, the March 14 coalition has squandered nearly four months of its renewed mandate since expanding its parliamentary majority in free and fair elections. True, the not-so-loyal opposition continues to obstruct the formation of a government, but March 14’s leaders have not helped in behaving like they lost the elections.
Of course, a Hizbullah armed to the teeth and backed by Iran and Syria would make any group of Lebanese think twice before crossing the line, particularly after the May 2008 assault on Beirut. As such, March 14 may have done well in exercising restraint over the past few months.
However, it should not be forgotten that the March 14 coalition’s regional patrons too had an interest in prolonging the cabinet formation process. Lebanon is a place where the Saudis and Syrians, among others, can frustrate each other’s ambitions without immediate consequences at home (though problems in Lebanon have a funny way of eventually affecting others).
Ultimately, the cabinet crisis’s local dimensions are superfluous Lebanese rituals.
Hopes, aspirations, and dreams aside, former General Michel Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement do not matter. The same applies to the Phalange. These parties’ demands simply cover up the real mess. That these demands – an extra cabinet portfolio or the appointment of a particular minister – are genuine only illustrates the political myopia at play.
On the same note, Aoun’s reported willingness to accept the Finance Ministry and four “ministries of state,” a refreshing or mischievous initiative, depending on one’s perspective, will not change anything.
The reality is that Lebanon’s cabinet is a prize, or gift, not a right. This “national unity” government will not see the light of day until the Saudis are satisfied with the Syrians, and vice-a-versa; until the United States and Iran flesh out their October negotiations; and, perhaps, until every regional actor has come to grips with the shifting strategic sands.
This is not to say that the Lebanese people should remove themselves from the political process, or that individuals on either side of the divide cannot hold convictions despite the ineptitude, fear, and imprudence that surround them.
Quite the contrary, for the shortcomings of others should not taint the genuine political and social sentiments felt by any citizen. That being said, one thing is clear…
Good boys, these leaders are.
The Silent
