Winter is approaching in Lebanon, and with it, a last respite before the country’s brief resurgence is once again battered by the regional fates. In 2010, Lebanon will face a series of challenges that will threaten to disrupt the slow progress made since Syria withdrew its troops in 2005.
Justice for Peace
First and foremost, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon will test the country’s unity and its strained relations with Syria. Established by the U.N. to investigate the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri – and rightfully so, reservations here notwithstanding – the Tribunal carries the potential to rip the country apart.
A controversial Der Spiegel report pointing the finger at Hizbullah has reminded all Lebanese parties, if a string of crises has not, that peace is the price of justice. It matters not whether investigators pursue Hizbullah or the Asad regime. Both tracks threaten the Party of God, and its cadres will use all available means to maintain their arms and project a political vision that conflicts with that of the Lebanese state.
Lebanon’s recent history attests to this. Hizbullah’s border raid, which ignited the July 2006 War (though the Olmert government seems to have planned a war in any event), was an attempt to postpone dialogue on disarmament; the party’s subsequent 18-month-long government boycott was an attempt to stall the Tribunal’s launch; and the May 2008 assault on Beirut was aimed at preserving logistical and informational autonomy while creating a new political reality on the ground.
War Games
Another hazard lies in the Israeli predicament regarding Iran. A preemptive attack on Iran would most certainly catalyze another Israel-Hizbullah war. Since 2006, both prospective belligerents have upped the ante, creating a new equation in the Levant: Hizbullah will look to strike Tel Aviv for an attack on Dahiyeh; Israel will punish all of Lebanon for Hizbullah’s actions.
The possibilities are as frightening as they are numerous.
Will Israel drop commandos in the northern Bekaa, infiltrate Beirut’s southern suburbs, or attempt to cut off South Lebanon from a logistics and information network in the rest of the country? Will Hizbullah strike Tel Aviv, send autonomous guerilla units into Northern Israel, or hit at Israeli interests abroad? Time will tell how, or even if, this war plays out, but it seems likely to happen at some point.
Divided They Stand
Finally, a less spectacular, but nevertheless troublesome issue on the horizon is Lebanon’s election to a rotating position on the U.N. Security Council. At first glance, a seat on the Security Council is a positive. States undoubtedly increase their influence and prestige, and the Lebanese are perpetually concsious of their “brand-name” image (though they may differ on what that brand represents).
Further, Security Council membership is a lucrative enterprise: in a 2006 study, entitled “How Much is a Seat on the Security Council Worth?,” two professors from Harvard University found that “[on] average, a non-permanent member of the council enjoys a 59 percent increase in total aid from the United States and an 8 percent increase in total development aid from the United Nations.”
Clearly, then, there are benefits to a seat on the Security Council – but there are also burdens.
Two problems may plague Lebanon’s two-year term on the Council. First, the country is deeply divided on several issues – foreign policy is no exception. Lebanon’s role in the region is a contentious issue, as are its relations with Israel, Syria, Iran, and the West. Asking diplomats in New York (or anywhere) to speak with one voice is almost impossible given the discord in Beirut.
Second, Lebanon, home to a U.N. contingent of 15000 peacekeepers, is on the agenda: the divided country will be the subject of the many of the investigations, deliberations, and resolutions that it must vote on. Likewise, decisions impacting the broader “Arab world” will weigh on the country’s diplomatic capabilities.
When the Snow Melts…
Having emerged from one of the best summers on record, the Lebanese would do well to enjoy the slopes this winter. For, as the Lebanese themselves are fond of saying, “when the snow melts… the shit shows.”
The Silent
