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Archive for the ‘Hizbullah’ Category

As if the advice and probing questions of “Guest” weren’t enough, I’ve had to sift through hours of tape to bring you the best of “Biggie’s” take on the region. While that’s not a problem from an entertainment standpoint, it’s a little frustrating to listen to successive barbs directed towards you in what amounts to a verbal spanking. (In the Middle East, or at least in my family, arguing is a lot like Gladiator. It doesn’t matter who’s right; what matters is that you “win the crowd!”)

Biggie has that stereotypically clear view of politics you might find in engineers, particularly any of Middle Eastern descent who’ve spent considerable time in the West. Take it as a rule of thumb, these guys are the backbone of the hard-line parties and of the hard-line factions within all political movements in the region.

In Biggie’s world-view, “politicians are crooks, citizens are fools, and regional and international players are conniving self-interested pricks. They’re all bastards.” And that’s that. Not that he’s wrong, or anything, but Biggie’s Christmas outlook is something like: ”Nuance Don’t Live Here No Mo!” This year, he was firing on all cylinders. (Look, a vague engineering reference!) In a series of blistering, beautiful rants, Biggie reminded us all just what it means to be a Zahlewi.

Here’s a (relatively) clean version:

“The problem in Lebanon is that nobody went all the way. We keep repeating the same mistakes: we fight a little bit, but are too scared to take the big risk; we make amends a little bit, but are too scared to trust each other fully. Make war, not feuds. Otherwise, just stay at home and let us live in peace.”

(Instantly, Biggie galvanized a debate on the history of political violence in Lebanon. The consensus, forged by Biggie’s sheer determination, was that the Lebanese have a tendency to settle for half-measures, even during apparently catastrophic wars. It’s a good point, though it’s obviously difficult to argue that the answer is more violence. Think of it as the Levantine version of the Powell Doctrine.)

“Forget Syria. You know Steve Jobs was Syrian. Would he have turned out the same had he not been given up for adoption? [Listens.] OK, fine, his family was relatively successful. Answer this: How many others like Steve Jobs might there have been had the place not been some oppressive shit hole?”

(Quietly agreeing with the observation, at least in essence.)

“And where do you think most folks here [the Middle East] send there kids to school, if they can afford it or otherwise get the chance? IRAN? SYRIA? No. They’re all in France, Canada, Australia, and – yes, oh, yes – the U.S. of A. I’m not saying those countries are perfect, but if we’re all honest it’s not even a close call as to where they’d want to be. So forgive me if I don’t buy this rejectionist shit!”

(Biggie’s made this same point, which I also believe to be valid, for years. Each year, he gets more colorful and animated. I can’t wait for 2015.)

“Who gives a shit about Hizbullah? Really. They’re like a rash that won’t go away.”

(A few people do care, though that’s probably what set Biggie off to begin with!)

“Lebanon’s a joke. Everybody here’s happy to have some politician stroke them. They’ll never learn…. What? No, ya Tannous, I don’t know who George Carlin is.”

(I spend the next ten minutes extolling Carlin’s virtues.)

“I’m suuuure he’s funny, but how does that help us here? Anyways…”

(At this point, I’m dejected. You can hear the silence of defeat on tape.)

“The Arab Spring? Now that’s funny. Do you think Qaddafi, Mubarak, and Asad – the whole lot of ‘em – came from Mars or something? We’re going to get the same bunch of folks with a new coat of paint to cover up the shit we’ve been smelling for decades. And when the oil runs out, the West will probably nuke this piece of shit region.”

(Still dejected. Merry Christmas. Truly, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.)

“All I’m saying is that Israel will not stand by and let Iran get the bomb. Does that mean Israel can prevent the Iranians from getting it? I don’t know. But it won’t be for lack of trying… The Israelis can’t but view this as existential. How long do you expect them to wait? It’s time to finish the job.”

(I can’t make up my mind. Part of me believes that Western, particularly American, pressure on Israel will keep things in check for the foreseeable future. While it’s true that Iran probably can’t block oil shipments for more than a few days, if at all, there’s no telling how the markets will react. Although the capacity to supply oil hasn’t been a problem for some time, global supply is – or is perceived to be – precarious. Alongside the sustained dollar devaluation and growing Asian energy demands, security premiums due to Middle East instability have been responsible for the past decade’s high prices. On the other hand, part of me agrees with Biggie. Sometimes, it’s just about survival. What will the Israelis do?)

That’s all for now. Stay tuned for more later this week.

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“You need a gun.”

It was February 14, 2005. Hours earlier, in a massive blast that shook Beirut to its core, assassins had taken the life of former Lebanese prime minister Rafic Hariri and dozens more. Between bouts of shock and rage, many Lebanese pointed the finger at Syria, but others focused their attention on Israel or – yes, even then – on Hizbullah. All were stunned by the brazen killing.

Somehow, though, my grandfather had other concerns. Beirut’s demons.

“Beirut can slide out of control quickly,” he said. “And then you’ll see the beasts underneath those pretty faces. Calmly walk to your car and drive away… Now.”

If I thought the old man was crazy then, the years have changed that. A string of assassinations, extended periods of political paralysis, and two noteworthy conflicts have pushed the Lebanese to the brink several times, revealing glimpses of a darkness lurking beneath Beirut’s Levantine cosmopolitanism.

Through it all, the controversial Special Tribunal for Lebanon, a source of conflict in itself, has gradually led aggrieved Lebanese to their neighbors’ doorsteps. Now unsealed, the STL indictment has named four men affiliated with Hizbullah as its suspects, thereby confirming some of the leaks, speculation, and half-truths that have surrounded the investigation since the beginning.

And so, the Tribunal will try four people affiliated with Hizbullah, a Shiite militia and political party, for the murder of Hariri, a Sunni political giant. The consequences of a public trial may be damning for the Party of God. Despite Hizbullah’s deep support among Lebanese Shiites, its future also depends on the perception of others.

In 2006, Hizbullah electrified the mostly Sunni Arab world by surviving – hence, “winning” – a war with Israel. Despite the ire of Sunni regimes, who blasted Hizbullah’s “adventurism” for their own reasons, Hizbullah was king for a moment.

That’s no longer true. The party has bled support for five years, has found itself mired in successive controversies, and now faces a few serious immediate challenges. Where regional popularity was once a source of strength for Hizbullah, emerging regional hostility may soon be a new weakness.

Faced with serious interrelated challenges, Hizbullah cannot be pleased with the indictment’s timing. First, due to worsening tensions with Israel, Hizbullah continues to prepare for another war, which analysts predict will involve large swathes of both Lebanon and Israel (as opposed to the usual border skirmishes and aerial campaigns).

Second, most Lebanese want to disarm Hizbullah sooner rather than later. Even members of the Free Patriotic Movement, Hizbullah’s most important ally, seek to integrate the party’s arsenal and cadres into legitimate state institutions at some point. There is no easy answer, but the Hizbullah question continues to dominate the Lebanese discourse.

Third, as local Sunnis seethe over past insults and injuries, prospects for renewed strife remain significant. Unresolved quarrels – the controversy surrounding the Hariri assassination; the May 2008 clashes; and the communal balance of power – have unraveled decades of painstaking work by Hizbullah to avoid ostracizing Lebanon’s Sunnis.  

Fourth, unrest in Syria threatens the Asad regime, a pivotal regional patron and ally. Regime change or even prolonged instability could reduce Hizbullah’s strategic depth, eliminate many training centers, hinder supply routes, and neuter political cover from Damascus.

Against this backdrop, a public international trial can only taint Hizbullah’s image and further constrain its room for maneuver. In the past, as with the July War and the May 2008 clashes, Hizbullah has used force to create political space for itself. Faced with mounting pressure, Hizbullah or its Iranian patrons are that much more likely to use force – by design, or as a rash reaction.

The deeper problem, however, has little to do with the party’s behavior in the short term. Its mere presence as an armed militia, under the shadow of past transgressions, will invite domestic and external challenges that will strain the Lebanese system for years to come.

Hizbullah itself will suffer just as much, maybe more. In Lebanon – part libertarian paradise, part Hobbesian jungle – many overly ambitious projects have failed crushingly. From the Druze emirs of the Modern Period and Ottomans of the late 19th century, to the Lebanese militias, Israelis, and Syrians of more recent vintage, life has quickly turned nasty and brutish.

Without seriously reinventing itself, Hizbullah will be next. Or was my grandfather alone in cleaning out his gun?

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Mere days after accusing the U.S. Embassy in Beirut of harboring spies, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah took the opportunity to react to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s indictment of four Lebanese citizens (at least two of whom have ties to the Party of God).

Greeting the STL… and Showing it the Door

In his speech, Nasrallah predictibly denounced the STL as a political instrument at the hands of the United States and Israel. First, Nasrallah guided Lebanese public through an interesting video montage that drew links between the STL and American intelligence services. It was especially surprising to see Robert Baer, of See No Evil/Syriana fame, pop up in the montage – but that’s besides the point, at least in this piece.

After his now-standard “powerpoint presentation,” Nasrallah turned his energies towards the STL’s problematic media leaks. In Hizbullah’s view, he made clear, these leaks were made by U.N. investigators to distort and tarnish the Party of God’s image.

That is, aside from noting the undeniable fact that media leaks can undermine the perception of judicial integrity, Nasrallah is trying to convince the enthralled masses that these leaks are part of an American-Israeli design against the party. (Of course, he failed to mention that his own allies, especially Interior Minister Marwan Charbel, were quick to publicly confirm information that the STL had requested they keep confidential. Just a thought.)

Finally, building upon the earlier criticisms, Nasrallah placed the STL squarely within the struggle his party has waged against Israel since the early 1980s. Basically telling his followers to take heart in the familiar, Nasrallah urged them to fight the STL ”bravely, firmly, and patiently.”

“That’s a Red Line, Son:” You’re Dancing in My Front Lawn

For all the quintessentially Lebanese sidestepping in Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s cabinet statement, Nasrallah has (again) made clear the limits of what his party will tolerate. It will be almost impossible for the Lebanese government to arrest these men (not that the current cabinet had its heart set on the matter).

And it will be just as difficult for March 14 to “oust” this government without the help of other Lebanese factions. The likely candidates – President Michel Sleiman and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt – are practically neutered and squarely within the pro-Syrian camp now, whether by choice or compulsion.

Back in 2008, a feeble and misguided attempt to challenge Hizbullah head-on triggered the hasty unraveling of the March 14 coalition as it then stood. Still struggling to pick up the pieces, March 14 continues to suffer from a leadership deficit: apparently under threat of assassination, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has been missing in action; the Phalange’s offerings suffer from internal incoherence and leave much to be desired; and, despite increasing his support within the Christian community, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has yet to escape his past.

Nasrallah has thrown down the gauntlet. It’s highly unlikely that anyone will, or can, step up.

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After six years of delay and anticipation, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has issued the first of a series of indictments relating to the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. According to an STL press release, Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen has determined that Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare’s first indictment presents “prima facie evidence for this case to proceed to trial.”

Next Steps

The indictment’s contents will remain confidential for now – as confidential as possible in this day and age – to give Lebanese authorities the time and space to arrest the accused parties. Under U.N. Security Council 1757 (and its annexes), Lebanese authorities must now serve the suspects with the indictments, arrest and detain them, and finally transfer them into STL custody.

Lebanon has 30 days to “report to the STL” what measures it has taken. If the authorities fail to arrest anyone within that time frame, the STL can order a “public advertisement” demanding that the individuals appear before the court. At that point, the suspects would officially be known to all.

Clouds of Controversy

Of course, media leaks and public speculation will reveal quite a bit before then. Sources have already told The Daily Star that the indictment names four suspects - Mustafa Badreddine, Salim al-Ayyash, Hasan Aineysseh, and Asad Sabra – affiliated with Hizbullah.

Badreddine, the reported mastermind behind the attack, is a cousin and a brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, a notorious Hizbullah commander who had disappeared for years before his assassination in 2008. According to The Daily Star, “Badreddine eventually replaced Mughniyeh as Hezbollah’s chief operations officer.” The connection is particularly interesting given speculation that Mughniyeh himself had been involved in the plot to kill Hariri.

Meanwhile, operating below Badreddine, it appears Ayyash ran the cell that executed the assassination in 2005. Aineysseh and Sabra’s roles have not received as much attention, but their alleged involvement was probably in the rank-and-file.

Speculation is not Adjudication… But What About Syria?

After all this time, and after all that has happened in Lebanon, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that speculative tid-bits do not make an indictment, an indictment does not make a trial, and a trial does not make a verdict.
 
Politicians will exploit the judicial process to cull together support or pressure their rivals. The Lebanese are no strangers to grand-standing. Commentators – on this blog, at Qifa Nabki, at The Daily Star, and elsewhere – will continue to weigh in as well.
 
It will be difficult to maintain the perception of judicial integrity with all the leaks and debates, but allowing the indictments and trials to speak for themselves is the best cure over the long term. After all, the STL draws its judges and staff from across the international arena; as with other international tribunals, their work will not be nearly as politicized as the commentary that surrounds it.
 
That said, resisting the urge to speculate about Syria’s role is all but impossible. Under pressure at home, the Asad regime retains much influence in Beirut. As long as it remains in power, the regime will influence events in Lebanon and in relation to the STL.
 
First, although Hizbullah will certainly have its say, Syrian behavior can frustrate or facilitate efforts to track down Lebanese suspects. Second, depending on the content of subsequent indictments, the regime might have to deal with another cut against it (Syrian officials are expected to be named). Third, at the broader level, given the current Lebanese government’s composition, Syria has a proxy in Beirut that may give lip-service to the notion of cooperating with international investigators while dragging its heels as long as possible.
 
Will the Asad regime play ball in hopes of easing international pressure? Or will it conclude that now, more than ever, it needs the support of Iran and Hizbullah? How will the Lebanese themselves, particularly Sunnis and Shiites, react to the indictment? One thing is certain: however these events play out, passions will flair as the STL paints the past and shapes the future of Lebanon and the Levant.

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Once again, the Druze of Lebanon have a pivotal role to play in their country’s destiny.

The Druze in Lebanon’s Emergence

Alongside the Maronites, Lebanon’s Druze community can claim a thousand-year presence in Mount Lebanon.  In the 16th and 17th centuries, the Druze Emir Fakhr el-Din managed to harness Druze and Maronite support and carve out a “Lebanese” principality that included parts of modern-day Syria and Israel. Fakhr el-Din’s grab for power and alliance with the Italian Duchy of Tuscany ulimately led the Ottomans to kill him and his family, but he set a precedent for Lebanese autonomists throughout the modern period.

Until the 19th century, the Druze dominated a feudal system that ruled over the Maronite-majority peasantry of Mount Lebanon. Social unrest and geopolitical change, including an internal struggle between the Sublime Porte and the Ottoman viceroy of Egypt, disrupted the old feudal order. The mobilization of the peasantry against the feudal lords eventually acquired a sectarian dimension – particularly during clashes in 1841 and 1860. Influenced by their increasingly powerful Church, Maronite peasants, merchants, and elites came to view themselves as part of a “nation.”

Faced with demographic and economic decline, the Druze were eventually pushed aside – and centuries of tumultuous partnership gave way to the dominance of one community. As the Maronites secured international and local elite support for their nationalist drive, their territorial ambitions resulted in the expansion of Lebanon’s borders in 1920.

The creation of “Greater Lebanon” set into motion political and demographic patterns that still impact Lebanon today. A Maronite-Sunni partnership guided Lebanon through the independence period and the First Republic (1943-1975). From 1975 to 1990, Lebanon fell prey to violence between various communal militias and foreign militaries. Maronite-Druze fighting during the “War of the Mountain” was particularly fierce, and resulted in the expulsion of hundreds of thousands Christians from southern Mount Lebanon. 

Although the Druze were able to carve out an autonomous enclave in the late 1980s, much like their Christian counterparts to the north, their milita might could not mask continuing demographic and political decline. Indeed, during the war, previously-acquiescent Lebanese Shiites emerged as a political actor in their own right. As such, in a reality formalized by Lebanon’s Taif Accord, three main communities came to hold sway over state institutions: the Maronites, the Sunnis, and the Shiites. Having gone to war under the leadership of a man – Kamal Beik Jumblatt – who sought to magnify his community’s role in Lebanon, particularly by seeking to eliminate political communalism, the Druze were now even further on the fringes.

Jumblatt the Younger and the Druze since 1990

Walid Jumblatt, who inherited leadership of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the Druze from his father Kamal, has operated within this context. Survival is his only imperative; morals, ideals, and political convictions matter, but are secondary concerns. During the 1980s, Jumblatt’s PSP cooperated with Israeli troops who had grown disenchanted with Christian dithering.

Throughout the 1990s, Jumblatt helped prop up a Syrian-Lebanese regime, benefiting himself and his community by holding sway over the Ministry of the Displaced, among others. As the new millenium approached, Jumblatt grew frustrated with the Syrian regime’s increasing reliance on a joint Syrian-Lebanese security apparatus, which exluded him and his political allies and sometimes actively cut against his interests.

After Israel’s withdrawal from South Lebanon in 2000, Lebanese calls for an end to Syrian occupation intensified. The Maronite Council of Bishops issued a formal statement calling for Syrian withdrawal. With the “Reconciliation of the Mount,” an agreement that has yet to result in the return of many Christians to their homes in the Chouf, Jumblatt joined the Maronites in their political quest to remove Syria from Lebanon. In 2005, the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri catalyzed the Sunni street to join ranks with the nascent Maronite-Druze opposition.

That moment was pivotal. Never before had the Lebanese streets converged alongside their elites with such force. Between the Maronites, Sunnis, and Druze, the Lebanese opposition to Syrian tutelage was able to mobilize over one million people on March 14, 2005. Since that moment, “realities on the ground” – that is, Hizbullah’s 2008 assault on Beirut and the Chouf – have convinced Jumblatt that the politics have changed.

In short, Jumblatt has danced back to Damascus. But this time, at least for now, his community seems uneasy with his decision. The past decade’s pivotal moments – 2000; 2005; 2008 – have illustrated how relevant the Druze still are. Their relevance now arises from the broader polarization that has afflicted Lebanon. Sunnis and Shiites continue to seeth at one another; the Christians are perpetually divided; the Druze have been able to use their weight to swing elections, determine cabinet compositions, and even oust a prime minister.

A National Appeal: March 14 Must Call on the Druze Once More

Earlier this week, outgoing Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri appealed to Lebanese Shiites to “stand with us [March 14?], next to the state.” Correctly noting that over-assertiveness has cost Lebanese communities in the past, Hariri continued his campaign against Hizbullah’s arsenal. The merits of such an overt approach may be debatable, but the attempt to win over Shiites is necessary. Lebanon has no future without them.

Hariri and his allies in March 14 – even, or perhaps especially, the Lebanese Forces – must reach out to the Druze of Lebanon. If Hizbullah does not represent the Shiites of Lebanon, then shouldn’t self-proclaimed Lebanese sovereignists seek to expose the false monopoly that Jumblatt claims over the Druze?

Many Druze have expressed their discontent with this latest of Jumblatt’s gambits. It’s time for March 14 to offer them a serious alternative.

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The U.S. Department of State (“State Department” or “DOS”) has just issued its budget request for the fiscal year of 2012. Not surprisingly, the State Department is responsible for coordinating and leading all international assistance programs.

For two reasons, this year’s budget request is particularly important. First, American domestic politics – under the twin impact of an ongoing fiscal crisis and a newly-elected Republican-majority Congress – increasingly disfavor significant international aid initiatives, particularly to countries in which U.S. strategic interests are less than obvious.

Second, from Washington’s perspective, Lebanese politics have taken a worrying turn. A Hizbullah-led coalition recently toppled Lebanon’s national-unity government, which enjoyed the support of the U.S. and other Western states. The March 14 coalition has elected to abstain from participating in the next cabinet, which will likely consist of Hizbullah’s allies and technocrats under the Prime Minister-designate, the billionaire telecom magnate Najib Mikati.

After these developments, the next Lebanese government may seek to abrogate a treaty of cooperation with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and otherwise distance itself from the STL’s work. Because the STL operates under the Security Council’s Chapter VII authority, Lebanese maneuvers can only facilitate or obstruct – but not or halt – its progress. Even so, the Obama Administration has stressed that the U.S. expects Lebanon to continue to adhere to its international obligations. 

Another area of concern is Lebanon’s security services, which have benefited greatly from American training, education, and equipping. The extended return of pro-Syrian authority in Lebanon might result in the disruption of this security cooperation – either by a Lebanese withdrawal or by American cuts in aid. Finally, Beirut’s robust financial sector, which has come under fire for suspected money laundering and terrorist financing activities, may suffer from negative perceptions of Hizbullah and its allies in the global marketplace.

In any event, Syria and Hizbullah’s increased influence over Lebanon’s state institutions may create quite a dilemma for American foreign policy-makers and for proponents of Lebanese sovereignty. On the one hand, the U.S. has a strong interest in building up Lebanon’s institutions, including the military, the police force, the judiciary, and the political administration. On the other hand, particularly given the political climate in Washington, the Obama Administration will have a hard time persuading Congress to approve hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to a Lebanon that is effectively governed by a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.

Importantly, the Obama Administration seems to have adopted a careful approach with an eye on the long term. Assistance to Lebanon has dipped slightly, but not to an extent that suggests Washington is targeting the new government at this point. Indeed, the sections of the budget request pertaining to Lebanon explicitly note the following (or some variant thereof):

The United States is closely watching recent developments in Lebanon. The next government should be judged by its actions and decisions. Until there is a new Lebanese government, it is premature to make any determinations about the future of U.S. assistance to Lebanon. However, it is important to plan for ongoing assistance for FY 2012 as an incentive to the next government and to consolidate gains.

For now, it seems, the Obama Administration is intent on judging the Lebanese government on its performance, not its composition. This is a sensible approach.

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March 14 partisans across the country, particularly Sunni supporters of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, have been protesting what they believe is a political coup by Hizbullah. Earlier today, Najib Mikati, a billionaire Sunni politician from the northern city of Tripoli, secured enough votes to head Lebanon’s  next government. Although Mikati had emerged as the Hizbullah-led March 8 coalition’s candidate for the premiership, he has denied being “Hizbullah’s man.”

In any case, the March 14 coalition and its Western backers fear that a Hizbullah-controlled government, even under the guise of a “national-unity” cabinet, could distance or even isolate Lebanon from the West and from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), a U.N. judicial body established to investigate the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri and other Lebanese politicians and citizens.

March 14 has called for protests in support of Hariri and the STL. Meanwhile, Sunni law-makers have called for a “Day of Rage” across Lebanon. Protesters have assembled peacefully in some places, but have burned tires, closed roads, and fired shots in others. All in all, fears of Sunni reactions against yet another embarrassment of Hariri only complicate the future of a country already bracing itself for a Hizbullah reaction to the imminent publicization of an STL indictment.

Here are some pictures and videos of Lebanon’s “Day of Rage.”

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Another premium selection from 2010′s Christmas Conversations…

Family Member 1

“Fuck politics. Lebanon is good for arak and kibbeh nayyieh. [The Lebanese] have been killing each other for generations. We’ve had a damn crisis every ten years or so. But we’ve still got our kibbeh nayyieh, arak – and tabbouleh and hummus – and that’s just fine by me.”

(No comment, except to say that I agree in a roundabout way.)

“Hizbullah might have killed Hariri, but it is ridiculous to argue that the Syria did not play a central role. The Syrian regime or elements of the security services probably arrange d for the attack, with Iranian approval probably being needed for Hizbullah’s possible involvement.”

(It is my view that the Syrian regime orchestrated Hariri’s assassination. Over the past few months, speculation of Hizbullah’s involvement has grown. While the involvement of members of Hizbullah may not be surprising, given how Syria operates in Lebanon, there is no publicly available evidence pointing in either direction. Once the STL indictment comes out, it will be possible to assess possible liability.)

“Geagea won’t be president unless Lebanon goes to war again. Or unless there’s some sort of plan to move against Hizbullah. He might have a shot then, but there’s no way he’ll be a peacetime president anytime soon.”

(I agree that Geagea will have difficulty ascending to the presidency anytime soon. I understand why people think Geagea might find his way to the presidency if Lebanon returns to war, but I have never fully grasped how this would happen. Does this rest on resurrecting the Lebanese Forces militia? Would this be part of a “regional project” or would local actors take matters into their own hands and bank on drawing foreign support in?)

“Michel Aoun? The man was a nobody – a complete unknown – in 1988. [Former President and Phalange Party leader] Amine Gemayel put him in government to screw Geagea and the Lebanese Forces. People were just tired of the militia order, he was an army commander, and he confronted Syria. Let’s not make him out to be a hero.”

(Aoun was commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in the mid-1980s. He was not really a “nobody,” but was definitely “unknown.” When Lebanese factions could not agree on electing a new President, Gemayel made Aoun the head of a caretaker cabinet at the eleventh hour. Gemayel and Geagea were engaged in a struggle over the Christian community, the Phalange party leadership, and the way forward in Lebanon. Aoun was a volatile actor whose presence alongside Geagea made for a combustible mix.)

“Gemayel and Aoun left Lebanon; Geagea went to jail; twenty years later, it’s like someone pressed play and we’re reliving the same bullshit! Here are you choices: a delusional general, a warlord, and a crusty old former president.”

(No comment.)

“Rafic Hariri might have thought he was bigger than Lebanon and [assassinated Lebanese journalist and MP] Gebran Tueni probably thought he was the voice of Lebanon. Both were too ambitious in their own way, so I was not too fond of either. But these men did not deserve to die the way they did.”

(No comment.)

“Hizbullah? Here’s the problem with Hizbullah: they’re working with the wrong model. Hizbullah criticizes people for looking to the West, as if that is some sort of tragedy, but Iran can’t even refine its own oil! And that’s what we’re supposed to strive towards? This is bigger than the fight with Israel ; Hizbullah is working with a social model that is doomed.”

(No comment.)

“Let me tell you something about Stuxnet [a computer virus rumored to have been unleashed by the U.S government]. Stuxnet attacked Siemens programmable logic controllers used for the Iranian nuclear program. Over 60% of computers targeted by the virus were in Iran. [The Iranians] don’t know who they’re playing with here. The U.S. has just given them a taste.”

(I did not know much about Stuxnet before this conversation. In reading up on the virus, I continue to be confused. The conversation also touched upon the recently-created U.S. Cyber Command. The consensus seemed to be that American cyber-warfare abilities would be too much for Iran to handle. The point seems plausible, but I have no idea whether this is actually true.)

“How many of you would send your kids to study or work in Iran or Syria? What about the U.S.? OK, why is that? America attracts the best, even from [Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and other Middle Eastern states].”

(No comment.)

“American decline? It is inevitable and might be underway already, but let’s not fool ourselves. We live in the here and now, and the U.S. will be a powerhouse for a long time to come! Let’s not rush to jump on the wrong wagon, OK?”

(In general terms, I think this is spot on. Of course, History surprises. The U.S. will face many internal constraints on its power, owing to its pluralistic political system and tenuous financial situation. But in general terms, the bases of American power – its economic, political, military, and cultural strength – are still robust and dynamic.)

“They’re all bastards. All of them.”

(It remains unclear who “they” are. What is clear, apparently, is that “they” are bastards… Don’t let them get you down.)

Family Member 1 has little patience for Iran and Syria – not because of political or religious inclinations, but because he/she “thinks in terms of economic, scientific, cultural, and military prowess.” This person emigrated from Lebanon to the U.S. in the late 1970s and returned in 2000. He/she sees a lot wrong with Western society, but thinks it far more dynamic than Iranian and Arab alternatives. Needless to say, Family Member 1 detests the “bastards” who run the show in Lebanon.

Take heart neo-feudal overlords, everybody’s a critic.

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Christmas Eve rarely provides a respite from intense political debate in Lebanon. Indeed, with members of the family back in town, the holiday resembles a political brawl more than a religious celebration – or maybe, in the words of D.L. Hughley, “that’s just my house.”

For the past decade, members of my mother’s family, their family and friends, and a revolving group of guests have gathered in Achrafieh. The birth of Christ and Santa’s generosity are practically afterthoughts. Save for a few carols and token attendance of Mass, the family spends its time debating the intricate disputes (read: petulant behavior) of Lebanese political leaders. Since 2005, when the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri opened up the Lebanese political arena, a single conversation has literally stretched over five years continuous conversation the winter season. 

Conversation ranges between sophisticated and calm analyses to incendiary outbursts that would make a sailor blush. Discussion has revolved around intra-Christian divisions, the Sunni-Shiite divide, the broader regional configuration, America’s place in the world, the “Hizbullah question,” and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). This year, of course, WikiLeaks provided some fresh conversational points. Despite the available fodder, and underneath an ever-changing surface, the conversation has been the same for the past five years.

The next couple posts on Page Lebanon will provide some entertaining and controversial selections from 2010′s political brawl. Because I did not ask my family and friends if I could publicize their views, I’ll be concealing their identities (Julian Assange, take note). Comments are in italics…

 

“The Guest”

“Hizbullah killed Hariri. [Hariri] was part of some regional project – one that included naturalizing the [Palestinian refugees], but was also aimed at the Shiites across the Middle East. That’s why Hizbullah killed him, under orders from [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Khamenei.”

(Here, the ever-present “regional project” rears its head. Of course, states have their policies, and do much to pursue their interests under the table, but it is also quite possible that Hariri was killed, quite simply, because the Syrian regime and its allies in Lebanon thought he had “grown too big for his britches.”)

“[Lebanese Forces leader] Samir Geagea will be Lebanon’s next president. What are you laughing at? He [Geagea] is in Saudi Arabia right now to begin resolving his issues with Syria. The Saudis, Egyptians, French, and Americans would rather have Geagea in Baabda [the seat of Lebanon's presidency].”

(I didn’t buy this argument. It’s not about morals, but politics – and Geagea has a credibility problem. Like many other war-time leaders, Geagea has his sins. The difference is that many Lebanese – including, importantly, members of his own Christian community – perceive his crimes to be more serious. As one observer remarked, “Geagea has ‘pulled the trigger’ himself, while others were more removed from the atrocities of war.” Perhaps these problems will grow smaller as Lebanon’s younger generation – one with few Civil War-era memories – becomes increasingly relevant. Perhaps Geagea will manage to capture much of the Christian vote in 2013. But the next president should take office in 2014, and this might be too soon for Geagea.)

“What do you mean Iranian and Syrian interests? Anthony, you’re a young man, listen to me… If the Americans want Geagea [as president], it will happen. Geagea’s history does not matter. Tell me where he’s made a mistake since 2005. The key is to begin laying the groundwork with Syria… What? No, that doesn’t suggest that Syria matters!”

(My point to “Guest” was that the past few years have demonstrated that Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, and pro-Syrian factions in Lebanon have the ability to frustrate the ambitions of the U.S. and the conservative Arab regimes. Aside from his credibility problem among many Lebanese, Geagea has been stridently (and often correctly) critical of Syria. As of yet, his post-2005 political revival has not involved rapprochement with Syria or pro-Syrian factions in Lebanon. Iran is no fan of Geagea either, particularly as it accuses the Lebanese Forces of kidnapping four of its diplomats in the 1980s. It is difficult to envision a regional consensus on someone like Geagea.)

“[Free Patriotic Movement leader] Michel Aoun is insane. Anyways, the man is finished.”

(I do believe Aoun reacted rashly in response to March 14′s early missteps in 2005, but this hyperbole is a little much for my taste. That said, I wonder about his political future. In contrast with 2005 and 2006, when Hizbullah was adjusting to a rapidly changing Lebanon and dealing with a war with Israel, the Party of God may not need as much “Christian cover.”)

“OK, maybe Syria matters. Hillou aaneh!”

(No comment.)

“The Americans should kill or “disappear” Assange to make an example of him.”

(No comment.)

“The region is in turmoil. It’s still early now, but wait and see how Sunnis and Shiites will turn against each other. The Sunnis are running to Turkey and the Shiites have been running to Iran. Just look at Iraq and Lebanon…”

(Over the past year or so, Turkey has begun to aggressively cultivate ties with the Arab world. Milking their dispute with Israel for all of its worth, the Turks have succeeded in carving out a renewed presence in the Arab Street. The Arab regimes might view Turkey as a possible counterweight against Shiite Iran, but are probably not thrilled with Ankara’s growing influence in the streets of Cairo, Damascus, and Beirut. Sunni and Shiite tensions continue to simmer, but for now a regional conflagration seems unlikely.)

“Imad Mughniyeh [a high-ranking Hizbullah commander killed in 2008] was not killed. The whole thing was cooked up to get the Mossad off his back.”

(And the Vatican, with Geagea’s help, killed Kennedy because he wasn’t Catholic enough.)

“The [Palestinian refugees] will be naturalized in Lebanon. Does anyone here really believe otherwise? Get over it!”

(In essence, I agree. It is difficult to imagine a Middle East resolution that does not involve accomodating the Palestinian presence in Lebanon. Palestinian refugees in Lebanon number between 200,000 and 500,000. For most, formative experiences occurred in Lebanon, not the Palestinian territories or Israel. Does this mean that Palestinian refugees will become Lebanese citizens? Not necessarily. But, despite the fears of Christians and Shiites, normalization is in order.)

Clearly, “Guest” was the party’s resident Conspiracy Brother. This older gentleman has seen the world twice-over, and always provides unique insight into the bigger picture. He thinks creatively and puts forward his own theories on quite a few things. But he’s also rather fond of behind-the-scenes drama, regional and local “projects,” and reducing complex issues into one-liners.

I’m sure your family, especially if you’re Middle Eastern, has one of these guys or gals.

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The Lebanese never learn.

For years, Hizbullah convinced many Lebanese that it would not turn its weapons against them. Shiites, Sunnis, Druze, and Christians all bought into that myth. Some believed wholeheartedly that Hizbullah would remain focused on Israel, while others saw no other choice but to acquiesce to realities on the ground. After all, the Lebanese had seemingly tired of conflict after decades of war and political bickering - and confronting Hizbullah would risk returning the country to a past that haunts almost every family in Lebanon.

Whether Hizbullah was genuine, or was simply catering to the fanciful views of others, does not matter. External motives - namely, acting as a forward base of Iran, protecting convergent Syrian-Iranian interests in Lebanon, and confronting Israel – drive Hizbullah’s actions. This is not to say that the party’s domestic goals, like increasing the Shiite voice in Lebanon’s system or providing social services and utilities, are irrelevant or even secondary; but only to stress that these goals are part of a broader project.

In that vein, the much-lauded “Lebanonization” of Hizbullah was driven by a Syrian regime intent on directing Lebanese political theater and an Iranian regime willing to accept that Lebanon’s demographic balance would not allow for a junior Islamic Republic on the Mediterranean. But make no mistake: the confrontation with Israel and with Israel’s Western backers remains the party’s foremost concern.

Importantly, this means that Hizbullah’s internal actions must be understood within its broader vision for Lebanon and the region. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Syrian tutelage and Israeli occupation contributed, albeit differently, to relative consensus in support of Hizbullah. Benefiting from Syrian control over Lebanese politics and Israel’s inflammatory presence, Hizbullah found it relatively easy to consolidate support within Lebanon.

After Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Hizbullah put its head down and began to fortify South Lebanon. Back in Beirut, a class of politicians – now scattered among various factions - depended on Syria for their continued relevance, and thus did not challenge Damascus on matters of importance, including the security sector and Hizbullah’s special status.

In 2005, as is well-known by now, assassins took the life of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. The killing was the straw that broke the camel’s back (or, perhaps, the snowflake that broke the Cedar tree). A colossal uprising drove Syria out of Lebanon, and sent Hizbullah scrambling to preserve its special prerogatives.

After months of dodging discussions on its arsenal, Hizbullah conducted a border raid and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. The “Party of God” probably did this to orchestrate another prisoner exchange, further solidify its credibility, and demonstrate its utility in post-Syria Lebanon. But Hizbullah had miscalculated.

No longer content with the “tit-for-tat” game it had played with Hizbullah since the mid-1990s, and notwithstanding Hizbullah’s proclamation of a “Divine Victory,” Israel simply pummeled Lebanon for more than a month, killing thousands of civilians and causing billions of dollars in direct damage.

Hizbullah fighters, as Israeli troops repeatedly acknowledged, fought valiantly. But to what end? Despite their prowess in the South Lebanon’s villages and nature reserves, Hizbullah fighters could only watch (alongside millions of other Lebanese) as the Israeli air force wrought destruction from the skies.

Since the July War of 2006, Lebanon has unraveled. Israel’s brutish response may have failed to achieve its publicly declared objectives, but it exposed Lebanon’s latent divisions and has since forced Hizbullah to work hard to protect its rear in Lebanon.

First, Hizbullah had to restore its nerve center and launch a massive rebuilding project to help Shiites return to their homes (never mind the billions collected by the Lebanese government in an international donor’s conference). Second, Hizbullah had to maintain its aura of resistance while alleviating Shiite fears of another war and dealing with increasingly assertive opposition to its weapons. Third, to protect either Syria or itself, Hizbullah had to paralyze Lebanon’s institutions to stave off the formation of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. In doing so, the party found itself further mired in Lebanon’s complex political web.

Finally, after years of burdening the Lebanese with the consequences of its arsenal, Hizbullah directly used its weapons against them in 2008. In response to a government attempt to curb its illegal use of a party-owned telecom network,  gunmen affiliated with Hizbullah and its allies took to the streets of Beirut and the Chouf Mountains, kicking off three weeks of unrest that ended with the Doha Accord, an agreement to basically “punt on” Lebanon’s disputes until parliamentary elections in 2009. After those elections yielded yet another majority for the March 14 coalition, Hizbullah and its allies managed to force through an uneasy coalition government anyway.

If U.N. prosecutors indict members of Hizbullah, and if the Tribunal’s trial chamber finds them guilty, Hizbullah will feel threatened in its ability to confront Israel and provide Iran with a strong presence in the Levant. That said, an indictment may not trigger a war or coup in 2011; indeed, the entire effort to try those responsible for a string of political assassinations in Lebanon may fizzle harmlessly if a political solution is somehow cooked up. Alternatively, Iran and Syria may prevail on Hizbullah to swallow the pill, pin the killing on “rogues” or party members that are no longer alive, and live to fight another day. In another possible scenario, Hizbullah’s patrons may decide to wait it out for another few months or years.

At this point, however, this is all speculation. If the Lebanese do not accept trading justice for peace, Hizbullah will add this latest “offense” to its already-raging fire of memory. Maybe not in 2011, but someday, somehow, Hizbullah will settle scores.

Hizbullah has offered its guarantees before; rather, it has offered the safety of silence. Having spoken up in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008, the Lebanese were met with a crisis at every turn. It’s time to get real.

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There are three problems with Raad’s attack on the STL Agreement.

First, Raad paints over several important facts, which hit at the consistency of his otherwise impressive challenge of the STL Agreement. Raad conceals that Lebanon’s institutional paralysis had much to do with the strategy of negation adopted by Hizbullah and Amal to prevent, and then derail, the STL’s establishment. Lahoud, the Shiite ministers in cabinet, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri basically stonewalled for three years. Of course, Lahoud was well within his right as President to participate in or resist international treaty negotiations. At first glance, there appears to be no answer to Raad’s point on the presidency. However, Raad is mistaken in asserting that Shiites lacked representation in cabinet. In fact, there were five Shiite ministers – and they boycotted cabinet sessions, but did not resign. Furthermore, Berri’s closure of Parliament, an act that Raad and other Hizbullah MP’s backed, blatantly disregarded Article 32 of the Lebanese Constitution, which sets out “ordinary [parliamentary] sessions.”

Second, Raad misunderstands the “rules of the game” within Lebanon’s domestic constitutional framework. In arguing that the principles of “coexistence” require a Shiite veto power (and corresponding Maronite and Sunni veto power), Raad assumes that the transient balance of power shapes Lebanon’s rules. While this is true to a certain extent, cabinet and parliament are based on Christian-Muslim parity rather than on narrower communal imperatives. It is one thing to argue that the law should reflect a new communal equation; it is an entirely different question to assert that it already does. But even if “coexistence” pointed towards a tri-polar balance, the principle is meant to protect communities instead of political parties or foreign participants. Conflating Hizbullah with the Shiite community distorts the rules, and so too does conflating the Future Movement with the Sunni community or the Lebanese Forces with the Maronite community. That other Lebanese parties, like the Phalange, sometimes agree with Hizbullah’s approach, though perhaps not its conclusions, only demonstrates how these parties lay claim to their communities and further distorts the system

Third, Raad and many other politicians, regardless of their stance, adhere to a caricature view of Lebanon’s constitutional interaction with the international system. International law is part of Lebanese law (to the extent that the latter exists!). The Lebanese Constitution’s preamble states, in part, that Lebanon is “a founding and active member of the United Nations Organization and abides by its covenants […]” Besides this explicit constitutional incorporation of international law, membership in the U.N. generally requires ceding sovereignty in exchange for some measure of collective security. Within that context, Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter empowers the Security Council to adopt measures necessary to maintaining international peace and security: in addition to the use of armed force (Article 42) and other provisional measures (Article 40), Article 41 of the U.N. Charter authorizes the Security Council to adopt measures “not involving the use of armed force.”

Special courts and tribunals are within the Security Council’s authority. Resolution 1757 invokes Chapter VII authority, as do several preceding resolutions relating to crimes against Lebanon. All other considerations are secondary from a legal point of view, including the charge that Lahoud did not participate in the STL Agreement’s negotiation. In essence, Resolution 1757 expressly overrode Lebanon’s stalled domestic process, and effectively stated that the STL would come into existence by June 10, 2007 (with or without the Lebanese state’s notification or approval).

Ultimately, given the content of the Lebanese Constitution’s preamble and the general requirements of U.N. membership, it is simply nonsensical to argue that the international process in question unduly transcended Lebanon’s constitutional framework. In any case, despite these holes in Hizbullah’s argument, it is certainly a positive sign that the party’s members (and Raad in particular) have engaged their opponents on the battlefield of ideas, rather than taking to the streets. Whether debate will give way to war remains to be seen.

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At a press conference earlier this week, Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad basically argued that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is unconstitutional, from a Lebanese perspective, and thus cannot pursue justice in the name of the Lebanese. To be precise, Raad and a retired Lebanese judge, Salim Jreisati, assailed the “Agreement between the United Nations and the Lebanese Republic on the establishment of a Special Tribunal for Lebanon” (STL Agreement).

To be brief, alongside U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757, the STL Agreement gave rise to the STL. The domestic impetus for the STL came on December 13, 2005, when former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora requested that the U.N. “establish a tribunal of an international character [...] to try all those who are found responsible for the terrorist crime perpetrated against [Hariri].” At that time, Lebanon’s cabinet – including the Hizbullah-led opposition coalition – was fully functioning. Both these points are beyond dispute.

But Raad and Jreisati contest subsequent developments, pointing out four main flaws in the process leading up to the STL’s formation:

  • First, the negotiations on the STL Agreement were unconstitutional in form. In particular, these negotiations were unconstitutional because they took place without former Lebanese President Emile Lahoud’s participation (by late 2006, when these negotiations were ongoing, Lahoud’s presence in Baabda Palace had all but paralyzed the presidency). Article 52 of the Lebanese Constitution states that the “President of the Republic negotiates international agreements in coordination with the Prime Minister.” Clearly, then, the President should have had a role. Raad’s view is strongest here.
  • Second, the government that signed and pushed through the agreement was illegitimate. Raad sees this as a crucial point: when the Siniora-led cabinet signed the STL Agreement in 2007, none of the Shiite ministers were participating in government sessions. Although Lebanon’s constitutional quorum was met by March 14′s grouping, Raad believes that the constitutional norm of “coexistence” precludes such important decisions absent Shiite representation in cabinet. Under Article 52 of the Lebanese Constitution, treaties and agreements do not enter into force without cabinet’s approval. If the cabinet was illegitimate, then its approval of the STL Agreement is invalid.
  • Third, March 14 partisans and the international community disregarded a host of constitutional processes in their rush to form the Tribunal. The STL Agreement – either because of its impact on the budget or because it cannot be withdrawn from annually – falls within a class of agreements that requires parliamentary approval. Parliament did not convene to ratify the agreement, so the agreement did not enter into force.
  • Fourth, the international mechanisms that overrode Lebanon’s political deadlock are themselves illegitimate, because they “transcend” the common framework that governs all Lebanese parties and communities. Here, Raad is referring to the fact that the STL Agreement took force despite Lebanon’s institutional inability to ratify it somehow.

As one would expect from Hizbullah’s sophisticated party machine – particularly from Raad, doubtlessly a man of great intellect – these arguments are serious attacks on the Tribunal and tie in nicely with one another. But his views are ultimately incorrect.

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… and what it is ain’t exactly clear.

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar has released a series of purported State Department cables that it claims were provided to it by WikiLeaks (including cables from Beirut). The most controversial cable has Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr basically telling American diplomats that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will stay out of Israel’s way if it again tries to eradicate Hizbullah through force of arms. Not only that, but Murr and Lebanese President Michel Sleiman supposedly crafted a plan to sequester Lebanese troops on base to avoid having them drawn into the conflict.

Based on the military’s prior history, this is not a bombshell. The Lebanese army did precisely that in 2006, not because it is unpatriotic or cowardly, but because it would be folly from an institutional standpoint to get into the mix as Hizbullah and Israel battle it out. Similarly, the LAF stood aside in 2008 as Hizbullah and its allies assaulted Beirut, controversially choosing to contain fighting instead of stepping in to quell it.

Politically, however, the cable could hurt the Defense Minister. Murr comes off as rather hostile and snooty vis-a-vis Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement. He also seems preoccupied with Hizbullah-backed Shiite purchasing of land and apartments in traditionally Christian areas of Lebanon and with sticking it to FPM leader Michel Aoun, who in Murr’s view is “going insane” and basically not acting “Christian” enough. As commentators have noted, this could ultimately hurt Sleiman, because Murr is viewed as one of his ministers in cabinet.

But hold on. As of yet, only one cable from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut has appeared on the “Cablegate” page. Also, WikiLeaks did not list Al-Akhbar as one of the papers it would release cables to. This brings up the problem of authenticity. Finally, even if the cables are essentially real – and that remains to be seen – parts of the reported conversation could be forged or tinkered with. 

Others have already noticed the discrepancies, which the paper claims are due to clerical errors (Elias Muhanna on Qifa Nabki picked up on this). But whose errors are these? Al-Akhbar ‘s or the diplomat’s? Furthermore, Mustapha at Beirut Spring has raised the possibility of false cables and notes that Al-Akhbar may be publishing purported cables that are not from WikiLeaks (he cites The Atlantic on this story).

The cables may be real, but caution is in order until they’re at least up on WikiLeaks itself. This is especially true in a country with a long and robust tradition of sensationalist and sometimes blatantly dishonest journalism. Not to accuse Al-Akhbar of anything, or to target it as opposed to other papers, but it’s worth taking in these “reports” with a grain of salt.

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Beirut is alive. Lebanon’s capital – with its rehabilitated business center, lively party districts, enthralling historical sites, and pockets of Levantine charm – is in the news again. Bullets and bombs have long defined this city, and this country, in the Western eye, but Lebanon seems to have returned to its ‘Golden Age.’ 

Once littered with stories of a fifteen-year-long civil war, periodic violence between Lebanon and Israel, and the resurgent political unrest that has plagued Lebanon since 2005, newspapers, wire services, and websites now breathlessly fawn over Beirut’s revival as a regional – indeed, global – tourist destination.

Lebanon has already seen more than one million tourists this year and, though the number is dominated by expatriates and inflated by a number of Syrian transients, the Ministry of Tourism hopes to double that number by the end of the year.

Yet, as the Lebanese dance, their leaders continue to gamble.

Two months after peaceful and free elections saw the March 14 coalition expand its parliamentary majority (Walid Jumblatt has since complicated things, but the elections stand alone for our purposes here), a caretaker cabinet continues to govern. Whatever the local reasons for this delay – some blame the Free Patriotic Movement, while others blame the majority – it is clear that the regional situation favors, or at least tolerates, this stalemate in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israel and Hizbullah continue to trade jabs. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has stated that Israel will hold Hizbullah responsible if ‘an Israeli diplomat or Israeli citizen is harmed abroad.’ The Israeli government has also warned that the next war will see strikes against all of Lebanon, without regard to which communities or areas support Hizbullah. 

In turn, Hizbullah’s Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, upped the ante at a massive rally marking the end the 2006 war, stating that the Shiite party would strike at Tel Aviv if Israel bombs either Beirut or Dahiyeh (the capital’s Hizbullah-dominated southern suburb) during the course of another war.

Perhaps the Lebanese are partying because they know that trouble looms ahead. After all, as the Japanese say, ’we’re fools whether we dance or not, so we might as well dance.’

Having survived the first brutal winds battering their nascent independence – political assassinations in 2005; war in 2006, paralysis in 2007; and internal strife in 2008 – the people of Lebanon may be dancing in the eye of the storm. One can only wonder how long they have before the next wave hits.

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He’s done it again.

Walid Jumblatt has left the March 14 coalition – or maybe not.

Being the leader of the fiercely proud and historically influential Druze minority, “Walid Beik” operates to keep his community secure and his dynasty relevant. With that said, it appears that three trends have led Jumblatt to move away from the March 14 coalition.

First, the Druze leader believes the regional winds are blowing in a new direction.

At the very least, he is unsure how Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Syria, and America’s attempt to follow suit, will affect politics in Lebanon. Uncertainty led the chieftain to mend fences with Damascus and, when met with an immediate domestic and regional backlash, to retreat from the “Beau Rivage declaration” (fittingly, the Beau Rivage Hotel was long a center of Syrian intelligence activity in Lebanon).

Second, Jumblatt fears a conflict that would threaten his community’s fragile presence in the Levant.

A repeat of Hizbullah’s 2008 assault on Beirut and the Chouf certainly qualifies as such a hazard. While the Druze repelled the attack, the community cannot afford sustained conflict with the Shiite party, which dominates areas that surround the Druze heartland.

Jumblatt is also wary of a Sunni-Shiite conflict that could ensnare the Druze. Mistrust prevails in the wake of last year’s fighting, and a controversial Der Spiegel report linking Hizbullah officials to the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri has only magnified the potential for strife.

Additionally, in reconciling with Hizbullah, Jumblatt may be shielding his community from internal maneuvers designed to protect supply lines and communications networks in the event of another Israel-Hizbullah war. Hizbullah’s channels, linking the Bekaa Valley with South Lebanon, traverse areas near Jumblatt’s own mountain stronghold and the party will certainly go to great lengths – as it did in May 2008 – to protect its infrastructure.

Third, Jumblatt had taken a backseat in the March 14 coalition and has acted to increase his political autonomy and influence.

Since inheriting his father’s political mantle in 2005, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri has gradually (and, at times, frustratingly) found his bearings. Quite simply, Hariri has not had to lean on Jumblatt for a while, and the latter ceased being the coalition’s driving force.

Nor was Jumblatt the coalition’s spearhead. March 14 Christians, particularly Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, have increasingly assumed that role and gained Hariri’s ear over the past year. Of course, Jumblatt’s political gymnastics made his allies trust him less and decreased his sway within the movement.

In short, Jumblatt sees more value as a wild card. But what does his shift mean for others?

As it stands now, Lebanese leaders have coalesced around three alignments: a pro-Western camp; a pro-Iranian camp; and a “centrist” camp influenced by Syria. These groups are not mutually exclusive and their relationship, mirroring the regional dynamic, will ebb and flow.

The United States and Saudi Arabia will continue to back Hariri, who leads the pro-Western camp, even if their relations with Syria thaw. Similarly, Iran will continue to support and bankroll the Hizbullah-led opposition. The “centrist” bloc’s actions will presumably depend on how the Asad regime positions itself in the region.

If Syria is serious about playing a constructive role in the Middle East, the situation in Lebanon might improve. Conversely, if Syria merely aims to buy time and extract concessions from the United States, then Lebanon will pay the price.

At the local level, Jumblatt’s move may encourage opposition figures to join the pro-Syrian bloc on some issues. For instance, Marada chief Suleiman Franjieh and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri both have an interest in opposing privatization, stalling anti-corruption measures, and crafting a pro-Syrian foreign policy.

Such a shift, if it occurs, will not diminish the March 8 bloc’s power. Most Shiites support Hizbullah, which Iran supplies and funds; and former General Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement retains much support within the Christian community.

Even so, Jumblatt’s departure is not a disaster for the March 14 movement. Whatever happens, Hariri can still count on Jumblatt’s support. Realistically, the Druze leader cannot afford to alienate Sunnis any more than Shiites. After all, Sunnis are a dominant majority in the Middle East and Jumblatt’s own electoral survival depends on good relations with Sunnis in the Chouf.

Moreover, Hariri’s Future Movement may move closer to the Lebanese Forces and Phalange, at least in the near term. These parties embrace Lebanon’s liberal economic tradition, oppose Syrian interference in Lebanon, and are comfortable in calling for serious talks on Hizbullah’s arms. Though smaller, the surviving coalition is more cohesive than its predecessor.

As always, the Beik fascinates and exasperates. An opportunist with a flair for making extravagant and contradictory declarations, the man is neither consistent nor accountable.

In some regard, however, he must be thanked. Unabashedly committed to his own survival, and that of his community, Walid Jumblatt has revealed – once more – the truth at the heart of politics in Lebanon.

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